Juniper Research

Electric vehicle battery pack shipments to reach 30 million in 2027

190% growth in global shipments reflects rapidly transforming mobility market.

September 12, 2022

A new study from Juniper Research found the volume of electric vehicle (EV) battery pack shipments will reach 30 million in 2027; from just 10 million in 2022. The research identified falling vehicle costs, often directly caused by government subsidies, and increasing awareness around the environmental impact of current mobility services as key drivers behind the growth in EV battery production.  

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Commercial vehicles to experience greatest growth

The research predicts this growth will be strongest within the commercial segment, with commercial EV battery pack shipments growing from 1.4 million in 2022 to over 7 million by 2027. Mass electrification of fleet vehicles is required for meeting corporate decarbonization goals and will drive investment into EVs from enterprises. This provides an opportunity for manufacturers to develop batteries designed for energy-intensive commercial use cases.

Research co-author Damla Sat explains, “Developing longer range vehicles by leveraging higher capacity battery packs will be critical to meeting expectations fostering commercial vehicle electrification but will require extensive investment to develop new battery pack technologies.”

New technologies key to unlocking electric vehicle potential
The research predicts for EVs to reach mass adoption across commercial use cases, including heavy goods haulage and passenger transport, scaling the production of new battery technologies is essential. This includes solid state batteries and new chemical mixes.

The most pressing issue for EV adoption is the rare earth minerals required in battery production, including difficult to source cobalt, in terms of cost and the ethics around procurement. The research recommends manufacturers must rapidly move to new, higher capacity technologies including solid state batteries to unlock energy intensive use cases. The report however cautioned changes in technologies must prioritize the sustainability goals electrification is based upon.