Fully autonomous vehicles: $38.6 billion market by 2030
Goods delivery, not passenger travel, will drive the bulk of the massive industry growth expected.
67.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
$1.0 billion in 2023 to $38.6 billion in 2030
Vehicles that deliver goods instead of people, such as the Nuro R1, which is already delivering groceries for Kroger, don’t need to include safety equipment and can travel very slowly, making them more practical in the short term. Goods delivery vehicles should grow more quickly than people-delivering robot-taxis.
Goods $0.6 billion
Passengers $0.4 billion
Goods $21.7 billion
Passengers $16.9 billion
Key safety/navigation technologies (in order of future spending)
• Ultrasonic sensors
Autonomous vehicle propulsion source (in order of future spending)
• Electric vehicles
• Hydrogen fuel cells
• Hybrid-electric powertrains
Major companies driving technology
• Aurora (bought Uber’s autonomous unit in late 2020)
• Cruise LLC (General Motors subsidiary)
• Daimler AG
• Ford Motor Co.
• Lyft Inc.
• Ridecell Inc.
• Waymo (Google subsidiary)