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Tesla U.S. sales to increase 250% by 2026 despite losing majority market share

EV share of industry climbs with newly EV models gaining ground; Tesla maintains clear EV sales leadership.


Autonomy, a completely digital vehicle subscription service providing consumers with the cheapest, fastest, and easiest way to subscribe to electric vehicles, offers the following reaction to Tesla’s first quarter earnings, along with insight and forecast of electric vehicle (EV) and Tesla sales looking ahead.

Autonomy forecast according to Jesse Toprak, chief analyst at Autonomy:

  • Tesla US sales will climb to 500,000 units 2022 (up 41% from 353,000 in 2021) and will hit 1.25 million units in 2026.
  • Tesla’s share of BEVs in the US will drop from 72% in 2021 to 32% in 2026.

EV share of the industry in the U.S. rose to 5.1% in the first quarter of 2022.  That compares to 2.8% in the first quarter of 2021, nearly doubling the share year-over-year.  One major contributing factor is the large increase in available EV models, with 13 new models introduced in the last year, 11 of which were introduced just in the last six months.  Two models gained significant share: the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Kia EV6, which share the E-GMP (Electric-Global Modular Platform) architecture as well as batteries and electric motors.

New models weren’t the largest contributor to the gain in EV volume, increased Tesla sales contributed 70% of the EV volume gain, with new models contributing the other 30%.  The Tesla Model 3, nearly doubling its volume, was largely responsible for Tesla’s gains, with Model Y and Model S also making contributions.  The only Tesla model with declining sales and share is the Model X. Tesla held the same share of EV, at 71% of the overall volume.  Outside of Tesla or newly introduced models, overall EV volume was flat.

From Q1 2021 to Q1 2022, there were some major shifts among the ‘non-Tesla’ EVs.  In Q1 of 2021, General Motors (GM) models represented 34% of every non-Tesla EV, but due to the stop-sale related to battery issues, this declined to under 1%.  On the other end, Hyundai and Kia, whose vehicles share platforms, rose from 12% of non-Tesla EVs to 37%.  In addition to the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Kia EV6, those nameplates also sell the Hyundai Kona Electric, Kia Niro EV and until last year, the Hyundai Ioniq. Other major EV manufacturers include Ford, which sells the Mustang Mach-E; and Volkswagen Group, which offers the VW ID.4, Audi e-tron SUV, e-tron GT sedan and Porsche Taycan.

“Tesla sales will continue on their hyper-growth trajectory for the next five years,” added Toprak. “As new EV models continue to be introduced seemingly on a daily basis by the rest of the manufacturers, the share for Tesla will naturally drop but this is of little concern to the company as the overall size of the EV market will also climb exponentially in the same period.”