Thousands of computer nodes running simultaneous traffic simulations in a cloud computing environment can predict how autonomous vehicles (AVs) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) should react to challenging situations, but cloud connectivity isn’t guaranteed.
A car in a wireless dead zone or a UAV operating in an electrical storm may be cut off from computing resources. As a solution, researchers at Washington State University (WSU) have created a software framework to bring some of that cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) to smaller devices.
They presented their most recent work at the 2020 Design Automation Conference and the 2020 International Conference on Computer Aided Design, demonstrating a framework for more efficient use of AI algorithms on mobile platforms and other portable devices.
“The goal is to push intelligence to mobile platforms that are resource-constrained in terms of power, computation, and memory,” says Jana Doppa, George and Joan Berry associate professor in WSU School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. “This has a huge number of applications ranging from mobile health, augmented and virtual reality, self-driving cars, and digital agriculture, to image and video processing mobile applications.”
Voice-recognition software, mobile health, robotics, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices use AI, and AVs remain somewhere on the not-too-distant horizon. Keeping that decision-making on the cloud doesn’t work, Doppa says.
The cloud isn’t fast enough – a self-driving car deciding to turn right while looking both ways would require information to go from the car to the cloud and then back to the car.
“The time required to make decisions might not meet real-time requirements,” says Partha Pande, Boeing Centennial Chair professor in WSU’s School of EECS. He adds that many rural areas also don’t have enough connectivity for AI communications back and forth through the cloud.
However, running sophisticated computer algorithms on portable devices is also problematic. Phone computing memory is small, and a lot of decision-making will quickly drain battery power.
Doppa’s group came up with a framework that runs complex neural network-based algorithms locally using less power and computation; the approach prioritizes problem solving. As in human decision-making, in which problems vary in complexity and require more or less brain power, the computer framework spends a lot of energy on only the complex parts of problems while using less resources for the easy ones.
“We are improving performance and saving a lot of energy,” Doppa says.
For example, in a digital agriculture application, more efficient software and hardware embedded on a UAV could efficiently make decisions about crop spraying with less computational and energy requirements.
On Nov. 23, 2020, two things happened that will likely drive electric vehicle (EV) adoption through 2024. The General Services Administration (GSA) began working with President-elect Joe Biden on his transition to the White House, and General Motors (GM) dropped out of a lawsuit supporting outgoing President Donald Trump’s efforts to weaken California’s regulatory powers.
Together, two major roadblocks to mandating EVs fell simultaneously. Biden promised to transition transportation to electric drive from fossil fuels. While he’ll need support from Senate Republicans on many issues, regulatory power rests largely with executive agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Former President Barack Obama tried to use executive authority to enshrine tougher standards by 2025, and Trump used the same power to roll back efforts.
Trump scrapped Obama’s entire program and directed the EPA to cancel a decades-old waiver allowing California to mandate tougher standards. Environmental groups and states that follow California’s rules – states that include more than half of the U.S. population – launched lawsuits. Ford and Honda sided with California’s tougher regulations. GM and Toyota sided with Trump.
Either because of Biden’s election or because it’s gotten serious about EV production (see cover story, pg. 21), GM reversed course, dropping its challenges and saying it will work with Golden State regulators.
Presidents always bring uncertainty when they enter office, and many in Washington and nationwide are waiting to see Biden’s plans. For automakers and suppliers, though, the change clearly favors battery-powered transportation.
British hybrid electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aviation company Samad Aerospace has launched its concept for Q-Starling, a high-end personal air vehicle (PAV), as luxurious as a private jet at less than half the operating cost.
The interior mimics high-end automotive comfort levels and will include transparencies and synthetic vision to enhance situational awareness.
The Q-Starling will seat two passengers and can be flown by licensed private pilots using a simplified side-stick control. The all-composite aircraft uses ultra-light carbon fiber for higher performance capability and increased strength.
A hybrid-electric turbo-generator will provide power for a large diameter hover and forward thrust fan in the fuselage and a fly-by-wire operated reaction control system (RCS) in the wings. Extensive, built-in safety systems include a ballistic parachute recovery system. http://www.samadaerospace.com
Flying car reaches take-off speed
The Switchblade flying sports car hit 88mph in runway test runs, its calculated take-off speed. Developer Samson Sky notes that’s the same speed the DeLorean had to reach before it could travel through time in the Robert Zemeckis movie “Back to the Future.” Switchblade developers call it a personal time machine because it could reduce a 10-hour, 500-mile drive to a 3.5-hour drive/fly trip.
The $150,000 flying sports car has reservations from 38 countries and all 50 states in America. Classified as a motorcycle by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Switchblade is powered by a turbo-charged, lightweight 200hp liquid-cooled 4-cylinder engine capable of 0-to-60mph in 6.5 seconds and a top speed of 125mph. In the air, it’s designed to cruise at 160mph with a top speed of 190mph. https://www.samsonsky.com
While many passenger car makers focus on batteries to power electric vehicles (EVs), commercial truck producers are looking toward hydrogen fuel cells, devices that generate electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen, leaving only water vapor behind as an emission. Initiatives include:
Cummins Inc., best known for its massive diesel engines in commercial trucks, the company’s expanding its fuel cell business, targeting $400 million in revenue for electrolyzers used in fuel cells by 2025.
Chairman and CEO Tom Linebarger says, “As the world transitions to a low carbon future, Cummins has the financial strength to invest in hydrogen and battery technologies as well as advanced diesel and natural gas powertrains.”
Toyota Motor North America (TMNA) and Hino Trucks are jointly developing a Class 8 fuel cell electric truck (FCET) for the North American market. The companies will use Hino’s XL Series chassis with Toyota’s hydrogen fuel cell technology. The collaboration expands upon the existing effort to develop a 25-ton FCET for the Japanese market. The initial demonstration vehicle is expected to arrive in the first half of 2021.
The Volvo Group and Daimler Truck AG have agreed to a joint venture (JV) to develop, produce, and commercialize fuel cell systems for heavy-duty trucks. Volvo will buy half of Daimler Truck Fuel Cell GmbH & Co. KG for about $700 million. Closing of the 50/50 JV is expected during the first half of 2021.
Martin Daum, chairman of Daimler Truck AG and a board member of Daimler AG, says, “The hydrogen-based fuel cell is a key technology for enabling CO2-neutral transportation in the future. We are both fully committed to the Paris Climate Agreement for decarbonizing road transport and other areas, and to building a prosperous jointly held company that will deliver large volumes of fuel cell systems.”
2020: The year of EV investments
features - Cover story
Despite being the worst year for manufacturing in more than a decade, automakers dramatically ramped up spending on electric vehicles this year, preparing for increased demand for such vehicles in the coming years.
Construction crews build the General Motors/LG Chem Ultium Cells LLC plant in Lordstown, Ohio.
Photos courtesy of General Motors
For decades, automakers have talked a good game about emissions-free driving, but when it came time to write checks for plant equipment or engineering resources, gasoline-powered trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) got the cash.
That changed dramatically in 2020. While much of the manufacturing world will remember the year as a hellscape of COVID-19 shutdowns and lost sales, it will likely go down as the turning point for investments in electric vehicles (EVs). In the U.S. alone, companies either spent or raised nearly $23 billion for EV production and development in 2020, about as much as the industry typically spends on conventional vehicle investments.
Rivian R1T pickup
Photos courtesy of Rivian (top), General Motors (bottom)
General Motors (GM) made up the lion’s share with plant upgrades in Michigan and Tennessee and new facilities in Ohio. But the nation’s largest automaker was not alone. Traditional competitors, new players such as Tesla, and startups such as Rivian and Lordstown Motors collected or spent huge sums of money to advance electric drive.
“We are seeing increased investments in EVs and previous investments in EVs nearing fruition,” says Michelle Krebs, executive analyst for retail company Autotrader. “Global automakers know which way the winds ultimately are blowing, regardless of politics and pandemics. The future, whenever that specific turn comes, is towards EVs. Tesla’s success, China’s intention to dominate EVs, and Europe’s regulations that require them and incentivize them are leading the charge.”
Regulations
That European push includes zero-emission vehicle mandates as soon as 2025 in some countries, a regulation adopted by California earlier this year, banning sales of new gasoline- and diesel-powered cars by 2035.
Independent industry analyst Rebecca Lindland says Chinese and European markets are making it critical for American and Japanese producers to develop vehicles and technologies to compete globally.
“Asia’s demand is fueled almost entirely by regulations, and in communist China, where the government is the ultimate ruler, the general public doesn’t have a lot of say in the matter,” Lindland adds.
No such mandates are spurring demand in the U.S. (California’s rules don’t kick in for 15 more years). EV buyers get perks such as tax breaks, special parking spots, and access to high-occupancy vehicle lanes while driving alone in California, but the U.S. is offering carrots, not sticks to encourage adoption for now.
General Motors is hiring 3,000 engineers to design electric and autonomous vehicles (top), and the company is building a $2.3 billion battery plant with joint venture partner LG Chem in Lordstown, Ohio (bottom).
Organized labor
Unifor, formerly the Canadian Auto Workers union, won massive plant investments from Ford and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) during contract talks this year (see sidebar, pg. 22). Talks with GM began in mid-October and were still ongoing as of this issue’s press time, but the Canadian union has made it clear that investments in next-generation electric cars and trucks are a priority.
“The commitments we have secured in these negotiations will stabilize FCA’s operations in Canada and position us as a global leader in the transition to zero emission vehicle production,” Unifor President Jerry Dias says after reaching a deal in October. “Workers who have feared plant closures and job losses in recent years can now look forward to a bright future with good jobs for years to come.”
In the U.S., the United Auto Workers (UAW) have also pushed for EV investments. During 2019’s labor talks, UAW officials pushed for massive investments such as GM’s transformation of Detroit-Hamtramck into an all-EV plant and big investments in Ford’s electric pickup production (See sidebar, pg. 24).
“The push towards EVs by the unions is an effort to save jobs now and in the future,” Lindland says. “Unions don’t really care what they build, as long as they have a job to build it.”
Consumers
Survey data from J.D. Power show that most Americans are still skeptical about EVs, despite Tesla’s growing sales.
“Right now, there are about 50 battery-electric vehicle models scheduled for a U.S. debut by the end of 2022. In that same two-year period, only 13% of the consumers we polled expect to buy one while 30% stated they have no intention to ever consider buying one,” says Kristin Kolodge, executive director of driver interaction and human-machine interface at J.D. Power. “Automakers need to figure out a way to get people into these types of vehicles to increase consideration.”
And while 13% purchase intentions are still a minority of the industry, it would be nearly triple the current sales rate of EVs. Kolodge adds that part of that problem is a classic chicken-or-egg question. People are skeptical about electric drive because they’ve never been in an EV (69% of U.S. drivers), and because drivers are skeptical, fewer EVs are on U.S. roads.
Photos courtesy of General Motors
People should get far more familiar with such vehicles as volumes grow, as they did with other automotive technologies. In 1995, for example, turbocharged engines were on less than 1% of vehicles in the U.S. By 2010, turbo market share was only about 3%, and analysts questioned plans from Ford and other automakers to use such devices on new vehicles. However, by 2015, turbo market share topped 30%, and it continues to rise, according to data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Instead of a backlash against turbos, they became premium options on pickups and performance cars.
Ford plans to add a $700 million hybrid and electric technical center to its Rouge Center pickup campus where it will make the electric F-150.
Artist’s rendering courtesy of Ford Motor Co.
Even without mandates in the U.S., demand for EVs, especially Tesla models, has grown as more models have become available. Tesla set a goal of 500,000 vehicle sales for 2020 at the end of last year, and despite the pandemic, is on pace to exceed that number.
“Consumers aren’t buying EV technology as much as they are buying into Tesla, which just so happens to make EVs,” Lindland says, adding that good EVs from Audi, BMW, GM, and Hyundai haven’t fared as well as Tesla. Numbers for most non-Tesla EVs are up in 2020, but Tesla is the undisputed king of the market.
Lindland notes that EVs are getting easier to own with longer ranges, shorter charging times, and lower prices. Fierce competition will likely accelerate those trends and introduce more drivers to electrified technology with mainstream vehicles such as Ford’s Mustang Mach-E hitting dealerships next year.
How quickly consumers warm to new technologies remains a huge question for the industry. What’s not in doubt after 2020, however, is where manufacturers will build and assemble next-generation electric cars and trucks.
About the author: Robert Schoenberger is editor of Today’s Motor Vehicles and Today’s eMobility. He can be reached at 216.393.0271 or rschoenberger@gie.net.
